Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Hamas in its final stages?

I'm beginning to read articles now that say Hamas is starting to desert the conflict. That younger militants are refusing to go outside for fear of Israeli strikes, and so the senior leaders have to lead by example and then -- end up getting hit by Israeli strikes.

The only real thing that seems to be bolstering Hamas's morale these days is Khaled Meshaal in Syria. It's a problem because he happens to be in Syria. If only there were some way to assassinate him...

Anyway. I think it looks clear that probably within a week, the Gaza offensive will end. Israel is just outside Gaza City's downtown area now and makes more progress, however slow, on a daily basis. At this point, we need to ask ourselves, what next?

The U.S. often takes a stance that looks something like this: "1) there's a problem. 2) destroy it. threat neutralized. 3) leave."

That's one of the things that needs to be changed about the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. Now, let me say that I never have supported the Iraq War. But we're there now and so I think we need to pump more money into building some schools, renewing their infrastructure, building roads, etc. Rebuild the country. Not doing so was what allowed the Afghans to have the excuse to attack us to begin with. If we reach out, rebuild the country and actually help the people of the country, then people will have to make a choice: Do I continue to assist the insurgency with no certain or clear goal, or do I embrace the U.S. in light of the fact that they're actually doing some good things here now?

This is the kind of thing that Israel needs to do post-Gaza offensive. Rebuild the houses that were destroyed. Build a new hospital. New medical clinics. Fix the water supplies. Establish more humanitarian aid to the region. Improve the quality of life to better than what it was while Hamas was there. Then bring in the Fatah. Calm down the spirits of people, and then allow Abbas to regain control of the strip. This is honestly the only way I can possibly see there being sustainable peace in the Strip. And at that point, Iran and Syria will be forced to capitulate that Israel is not full of baby-eating monsters and will have no arguments left against the Jews. The only other possible thing could be the al-Aqsa mosque. I'm not sure if there is actual controversy there still, but some people here still talk about it.

Getting up and leaving was what led to World War II, when France, UK, and the U.S. gave a big old "fuck you" to Germany after WWI. This is not the time to repeat those mistakes.

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